(NOTE: The data in the narrative has been revised. Initially, the objective was to provide in-person early voter percentages. Inadvertently, the percentages provided were for the complete 2014 and 2018 election.)
Do past midterm voter-age trends still apply in a county where demographic changes have greatly impacted the makeup of electorate? The 2022 Midterms in Harris County will provide an answer to that question. However, aside from the share of the vote age groups comprise, there are other factors to consider.
In the 2014 Midterm, when Republicans won the last Countywide contest appearing on the ballot, nonSpanish and nonAsian surname voters comprised 88% of the early voters, Spanish-surname voters 9%, and Asian-surname voters 3% going into Election Day.
In the 2018 Midterm, when Democrats won the last Countywide contest appearing on the ballot, nonSpanish and nonAsians voters comprised 79% of the early voters, Spanish-surname voters 17% and Asian-surname voters 4% going into Election Day.
Going into Election Day for the 2022 Midterms, nonSpanish nonAsian surname early voters account for 80% of the early voters, Spanish-surname voters 16% and Asian surname voters 4%.
So, who has the advantage in the largest county in Texas? Of the three early voting variables compared, none match the 2010 or 2014 elections. Moreover, the benchmarks are closer to the 2018 totals. In addition, the margin of victory in the last Countywide contest appearing on the ballot in the 2014 Midterm the Republican won by 42,379 votes. In 2018, the Democrat won by a margin of 158,733 votes.
Overall, who turns out to vote on Election Day matters. A very very low turnout increases the chance that the small faction of conservative White voters remaining in Harris County could control the outcomes on Election Day.
NOTE: mail voters are not included in this analysis because of the 2020 presidential election narratives may have skewed who votes via mail.
WORK-IN-PROGRESS
