Data from Harris County, Texas, suggest that Barack Obama’s presence on the Democratic presidential ticket in 2008 and 2012 significantly increased voter participation in predominantly African American communities.
A comparison of voter registration and turnout in Harris County ZIP code areas with the highest percentages of African American residents highlights the importance of the Black vote in presidential elections. In these predominantly African American ZIP codes, voter turnout was 57% in 2012, when President Obama was on the ballot, compared with 52% in 2016, when he was not. Similarly, aggregate voting and registration data from Harris County State Representative districts represented by African Americans show turnout declining from 59% in 2012 to 56% in 2016.
The growth in voter participation becomes even more apparent when the November 2000 election is used as a baseline. Compared with 2000 turnout levels, the predominantly African American ZIP code areas examined experienced a 13% increase in turnout in 2004 and a remarkable 32% increase in both 2008 and 2012. This pattern suggests that Obama’s candidacies generated unusually high levels of electoral participation.
The ZIP codes analyzed include 77004, 77016, 77026, 77028, 77031, 77033, 77047, 77048, 77051, 77078, and 77091. Together, these areas contain approximately one-third of Harris County’s African American population.
Because Texas voter registration forms do not require applicants to identify their race or ethnicity, it is impossible to determine with certainty the racial composition of registered voters or actual voters in these areas. Nevertheless, U.S. Census data indicate that African Americans comprise approximately 78% of the population in these ZIP codes, while Latinos account for about 16%. Given differences in age distribution and citizenship rates, the Latino share of the eligible electorate is considerably smaller. As a result, there is a strong likelihood that African Americans constitute roughly 90% or more of the voting electorate in these ZIP codes.
Even small turnout declines among a party’s most reliable voters can have significant consequences in closely contested elections. A drop of 3% to 5% in voter participation may be enough to influence election outcomes. If the lower turnout observed in predominantly African American areas of Harris County in 2016 also occurred in battleground states such as Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, and Ohio, it could have contributed to the outcome of the presidential election.
Some observers have attributed the Democratic Party’s strong performance in Harris County in 2016, where the Democratic presidential nominee won by 12 percentage points, to the presence of a White female candidate on the ticket. While that candidate won the national popular vote, Harris County’s demographic composition suggests a different explanation. Approximately 59% of the county’s citizen voting-age population consists of African Americans, Latinos, and Asians. In Harris County, and likely in many jurisdictions with similar demographics, these groups provide as much as two-thirds of the votes received by Democratic presidential candidates.
Every presidential election has its own unique dynamics. Economic conditions, incumbency, third-party candidates, regional political trends, and candidate quality all influence electoral outcomes. Yet the Harris County data indicate that candidate identity can also play an important role in voter mobilization. The substantial increase in turnout within predominantly African American communities during Barack Obama’s candidacies, followed by a decline when he was no longer on the ballot, suggests that his presence motivated participation at levels unmatched by recent Democratic candidates.
The evidence from Harris County does not by itself explain national election outcomes. However, it strongly suggests that candidates who inspire enthusiasm among voters of color can significantly increase turnout and, in close elections, make the difference between victory and defeat.
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(Héctor de Leon is the writer of Hector de Leon Perspective. Hector has devoted his life to carrying out initiatives via private and public entities to provide citizens the information to understand and access the voting process.)
