OBJECTIVE
This analysis measures the changes in the registered voter population in cities and unincorporated areas in Harris County at a ten year interval and examines if the changes are explained by 2020 Census. It combines Census population data with voter registration data with the objective of providing comprehensive information stakeholders, candidates and politicos can use to envision the County’s evolving political landscape.
ABOUT THE DATA TABLES PROVIDED
The presentation (see provided excel spreadsheet) includes several data tables. Table 1 contains the Dec 2011 and Dec. 2021 voter registration totals for every incorporated city within Harris County and the unincorporated area of the County. The voter registration data is sorted by surname. The Spanish and Asian registered voters for each city were extracted by conducting ACCESS queries on the voter registration files using Spanish and Asian surname glossaries. The non-Spanish and non-Asian voter registration data was calculated by subtracting the Spanish and Asian surname aggregate registered voter total from the overall number of the County’s registered voters.
Table 1 also provides the 2020 Census population estimates by race and ethnicity, and the 18 years of age and over population by race and ethnicity, for every incorporated city within Harris County and the unincorporated area of the County. Table 2 provides the 2020 Census population data and the Dec 2011 and Dec. 2021 registered voter data for the City of Houston, Unincorporated Harris County and the small incorporated cities within the County. NOTE: In table 1 and 2, the unincorporated area data total include the aggregate total for Census-designated places (CDP), Aldine, Atascocita, Barrett, Channelview, Cinco Ranch, Cloverleaf, Crosby, Highlands, Mission Bend, Sheldon, Spring, The Woodlands, and other parts of the County that are not affiliated with with a CDP or a consolidated city.
Table 3 provides the population of Harris County sorted in three categories, the 18 years of age and over population, the under 18 population and the overall population.
The information on the tables is based on the 2020 Decennial Census P.L. 94-171 Redistricting Data Summary Files for Harris County, TX, and the official Harris County 2011 and 2021 Voter Registration Roll for December. The Census files and the voter registration files used to conduct this analysis are public information. The former is available at the Census website. The latter is available at the Harris County Election Office.
PRELIMINARY FINDINGS
- The compared voter registration files show that the Spanish-surname register voter count grew by 66.7%, in ten years. The Asian-surnamed registered voter count grew by 64.6%. And, the non-Spanish and non-Asian surname registered voter count grew by 23.1%.
- The voter registration files reviewed also show that the City of Houston’s share of the County’s registered voters is 45.7%, decreasing by 3.5% in ten years. The share of registered voters for small cities is 11.1%, decreasing by 1%. And, the share of registered voters in unincorporated Harris County is 43.3%, growing by 4.6%.
- In regards to population estimates, the 2020 Census shows that the City of Houston comprises 47.7% of the County’s population and of that minorities comprise 76.1%; unincorporated Harris County comprises 35.5% of the County’s population and of that 70.6% is minority; Census-designated places comprise 6.1% of the County’s population and of that 71.5% is minority; Incorporated cities, excluding Houston, comprise 10.7% of the County’s population and of that 61.9% is minority.
- The review shows that in Harris County, TX:
- Hispanics comprise 43% of the over all population, 39.9% of the 18 and over population and 51.9% of the under 18 population.
- Whites comprise 27.7% of the over all population, 30.6% of the 18 and over population and 19.3% of the under 18.
- Blacks comprise 18.7% the over all population, 18.7% of the 18 and over population and 18.8% of the under 18 population .
- Asians comprise 7.3% of the over all population, 7.9% of the 18 and over population and 5.6% of the under 18 population.
- Others comprise 3.3% of the over all population, 2.9% of the 18 and over population and 4.4% of the under 18 population.
SUMMARY
The 2020 Census Redistricting Data Summary files and the 2011 and 2021 December voter registration files for Harris County affirm that “White alone” individuals are a minority of the population and registered voters in the County. The minority status of “White alone” people in Harris County is best exemplified by the fact that “White alone” individuals are a majority in *21 of the 34 incorporated cities within the County. However, those 21 cities only account for 4.1% of the County’s population and 5.2% of the registered voters. That is bad news for candidates and political parties that historically have relied on the “White alone” population to obtain and/or maintain political power in the third largest County in the nation
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*Hunters Creek Village, Taylor Lake Village, Spring Valley Village, Hilshire Village, El Lago, Piney Point, Village, West University Place, Bunker Hill Village, Shoreacres, Tomball, Seabrook, Southside Place, Hedwig Village, Morgan’s Point, Nassau Bay, Bellaire, Friendswood, Deer Park, Katy, Jersey Village, La Porte
*White alone is a U.S. Census term used to describe a person who only marked “White” when responding to the question “What is this persons race” on the Census 2020 Questionnaire.
(This is a work in-progress)
